Laying the Points in So Cal, Taking the Points in the Bay Area

USC is a 46-point favorite over the University of Washington today. Stanford is a 30-point favorite over the Washington State Cougars. A combined spread of +76 has to be, or damn close to, the biggest combined point spread against the State of Washington teams. Ever.

I'm laying 46 to USC and taking the Cougars plus 30. While USC will hold the score down and the Huskies will put some points on the board, Carroll knows that the computers and voters are looking for style points. With Penn State winning last Saturday, more than likely one of the two National Championship slots is filled.

No matter what Texas and Alabama do, as long as Penn State goes undefeated they will be in the National Championship game. Now, I'm not saying that if Texas and Alabama both go undefeated Penn State would jump over them. What I am saying is that one of the slots is already filled because even if both Texas and Alabama lose, Penn State will fill that position. That means that USC needs to win out, and win out big, to have even a chance at the NC game. Oklahoma has the "better" one loss but they might not even play in their conference's championship game, therefore eliminating them from contention in most voters' eyes.

I expect USC to win big today, something like 66-10.

On the other hand, Stanford cannot throw the ball. Tavita Pritchard ranks 8th in the conference in passer rating and has thrown more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7). Stanford is going to pound the ball with Toby Gerhart. This lends well to the Cougars covering for two reasons: One, running the ball will eat the clock, and two, the Cougars are sure to have 8 guys, maybe even 9 on first down in the box. Stanford is going to have to work hard to earn those yards on the ground.

Do I think the Cougars are going to win? No, but a score like 31-17 is what I expect to see.